1 Introduction

This is a place for sources of raw data.

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2 AI

The following list identifies the key studies found in the sources that demonstrate the significant challenges companies face in achieving a return on investment (ROI) from AI.

2.1 AI has little or no ROI

1. MIT Study on Generative AI (2025) Key Finding: A staggering 95% of organizations achieved zero measurable ROI despite a combined investment of $30 billion to $40 billion. Only 5% of custom enterprise solutions successfully reached production deployment.
2. Deloitte Global AI ROI Performance Index (2025) Key Finding: Satisfactory ROI typically takes two to four years to materialize, which is significantly longer than the standard 7-12 month expectation for other tech. Only 10% of organizations using "agentic AI" reported significant ROI.
3. Forrester Research: Predictions 2026 Key Finding: Only 15% of AI decision-makers reported an EBITDA lift in the past year, and fewer than one-third can link AI value to profit and loss (P&L) changes.
4. Gartner® Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Strategy (2025) Key Finding: Generative AI has entered the "trough of disillusionment." Fewer than 30% of supply chain AI pilots successfully transition to production systems, and 30% of projects are expected to be abandoned after the proof-of-concept stage.
5. Center for AI Safety / Moon Analysis (2026) Key Finding: AI agents simulating freelance work failed 95% of the time. In a direct comparison, humans generated $150,000 in value from assigned tasks, while AI models managed only $1,700.
6. Goldman Sachs 'AI Narrative Framework' (2025) Key Finding: There is a massive "monetization gap" where the top five cloud providers are spending $381 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, yet only 5% of companies are seeing measurable benefits.

2.2 AI with positive ROI

Top 5 AI Projects with Proven ROI (2026)

Out of the AI projects that do have ROI, here are some of the top 5.

1. Fraud Detection & Financial Crime Monitoring
   • Impact: Financial institutions using advanced ML models for real-time transaction monitoring have reported a 2-4x improvement in detection accuracy and a 60% reduction in false alerts, significantly lowering compliance overhead.
   • Source: Master of Code AI ROI Study
2. Supply Chain Demand Forecasting
   • Impact: AI-driven forecasting models continuously analyze logistics, seasonality, and market signals to reduce inventory imbalances, leading to millions in savings through decreased stockouts and waste.
   • Source: Titani Solutions Enterprise AI Examples
3. Intelligent Document Processing (IDP)
   • Impact: Automating the extraction and validation of data from complex invoices and contracts has allowed multinational enterprises to cut processing times by 70%, enabling staff to shift from manual entry to analytical work.
   • Source: IBM Research on AI ROI
4. Predictive Maintenance in Manufacturing
   • Impact: Predictive analytics monitoring equipment health across industrial assets have helped firms reduce unplanned downtime by 20–50%, saving billions in lost production annually.
   • Source: TTMS AI Business Solutions
5. Customer Support Automation
   • Impact: AI-powered agents now resolve routine inquiries instantly across chat and email, with leaders seeing up to 55% automation rates and a 48% increase in response speeds, freeing human agents for complex interactions.
   • Source: NetCom Learning AI Transformation

2.3 AI job cuts

Job losses due to AI. Updated 3/17/26.

1. Meta – Planning to lay off up to 20 percent of staff to automate processes with AI. Source: SiliconANGLE
   
2. HP – Plans to cut up to 6000 jobs by 2028, citing AI-driven productivity measures. Source: Business Insider
   
3. IBM – Has signaled replacement of some roles with AI. Source: Business Insider
   
4. Klarna – Workforce has halved over four years; CEO says more reductions due to AI. Source: Business Insider
   
5. Atlassian – Announced layoffs attributed to efficiency gains from AI. Source: Tech Xplore
   
6. Block (Square) – Cited AI efficiency gains as a reason for layoffs. Source: Tech Xplore
   
7. Amazon – Has laid off thousands citing AI as a factor in job cuts. Source: CNBC
   
8. Microsoft – Cited AI as a factor in 2025 layoffs. Source: CNBC
   
9. Salesforce – Cut thousands of roles citing AI-driven restructuring. Source: CNBC
   
10. General list of 100+ companies – Many firms across industries have announced AI-driven layoffs. Source: Programs.com

2.4 AI Bubble

AI Stock Bubble Bursting Predictions

1. Goldman Sachs: Does not predict an AI bubble bursting, but notes that current valuation levels still have a 46% discount compared to the dot-com bubble era.
2. Goldman Sachs: However, they do mention that the Nasdaq 100 Index's price-to-earnings ratio is 46% lower than its peak during the dot-com bubble, indicating that conditions are not yet ripe for a significant market correction.
3. Goldman Sachs: Despite concerns about bubbles, the report states that the current market environment shares some similarities with the late 1990s, but IPO activity is far below the levels seen at that time.
4. Goldman Sachs: The report points out that the rapid expansion of AI workloads will significantly boost data center demand, leading to a projected increase in global electricity demand of over 165% by 2030.
5. Goldman Sachs: Unprecedented investment in AI infrastructure, with the top five cloud service providers’ capital expenditures projected to reach USD 381 billion by 2025, a 68% year-on-year increase, may also be a contributing factor to market concerns.

3 Energy and oil

1. EIA. Has graphs of oil prices. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/ US price tables for gasonline and diesel: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ Scroll down for graphs.

4 Farming

4.1 2026 Fertilizer issues

Securing fertilizer for the 2026 spring season has been a significant challenge for U.S. farmers due to market disruptions and surging prices. Estimates on how many have successfully locked in their supplies vary depending on the source and region:

1. Approximately 60% of farmers reported having their nitrogen fully secured for the 2026 growing season as of late April. Source: Agriculture of America
2. About 64% of farmers reported having their phosphate needs fully secured by the same period. Source: Agriculture of America
3. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins estimated that roughly 80% of farmers had their nutrients locked in, though industry analysts suggest the actual figure may be lower. Source: DTN Progressive Farmer
4. In the Midwest, 67% of producers reported higher pre-booking rates, securing their fertilizer earlier in the season to avoid price volatility. Source: AgriNews
5. Only 19% of farmers in the Southern U.S. successfully pre-booked their fertilizer, leaving the vast majority exposed to in-season price spikes. Source: AgriNews
6. Pre-booking rates in the Northeast and West were also limited, with only 30% and 31% of farmers respectively securing fertilizer ahead of the season. Source: AgriNews
7. Large-scale farms (2,500+ acres) had a higher security rate, with 76% pre-booking fertilizer compared to only 49% of smaller farms (1-499 acres). Source: AgriNews
8. Survey data indicates that 65.25% of U.S. farmers reported being unable to afford all their needed fertilizer for the 2026 year. Source: AgriNews

4.2 Farming bankruptcies

The number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies in the United States over the last five full years shows a recent upward trend after hitting a historic low in 2022.

1. 2021: 276 filings. Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
2. 2022: 169 filings (lowest recorded level since 2004). Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
3. 2023: 139 filings. Source: American Bankruptcy Institute
4. 2024: 216 filings. Source: Investigate Midwest
5. 2025: 315 filings (a 46% increase from the previous year). Source: WIBC News

From American Farm Bureau Federation.

Based on reports from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) analyzing U.S. Courts data, here are the Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings for the last five full years:

1. 2021: 276 filings. Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
2. 2022: 169 filings (a historic low since 2004). Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
3. 2023: 139 filings. Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
4. 2024: 216 filings (a 55% increase from the previous year). Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
5. 2025: 315 filings (a 46% increase from the previous year). Source: American Farm Bureau Federation

5 Small business

1. 99.9% of business in the US is small business. According to the latest U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) 2026 report, small businesses account for 99.9% of all businesses in the United States. SBA.gov.
2. Business Formations: New business applications remain at record highs, with over 1.1 million new formations in the first two months of 2026 alone. Morningstar.com NOTE: This could also be due to layoffs, and a person's other option is to start their own business.
3. According to the latest U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) 2026 Frequently Asked Questions, small businesses employ 45.9% of all private sector workers in the U.S.

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